It’s that time again, the season and by extension the fantasy season, are starting to get underway. After doing approximately 100 mock drafts, and burying myself in a mountain of research, I have compiled a list of potential players to target based on their ADP, as well as some to avoid. Let’s start with Quarterbacks who are undervalued based of where they are going in drafts this season.
Note: All Projections are based on PPR scoring formats
5) Lamar Jackson
- ADP: 122
- Position Rank: QB18
There is a strong argument for Jackson to headline this list, because his ADP is absolutely absurd. Jackson is being overlooked due to low passing numbers, but rushing numbers get more fantasy points, and Jackson could be the most consistent rushing threats in NFL history. The risk here is injury due to that high rushing workload, but at his current ADP he is a must draft with an insanely high floor.
4) Kyler Murray
- ADP: 109
- Position Rank: QB12
There is a lot of risk drafting a rookie on a sub par offense in fantasy football. However Kyler Murray will likely outperform his ranking and his ADP if he he is healthy and available all 16 games. Murray will be one of the fastest NFL QBs from week 1 so he should have a high floor as a rusher, and he will be playing in a fast paced air raid offense and historically they tend to lead to big numbers from QBs. At 109 Kyler could end up as a steal.
3) Dak Prescott
- ADP: 128
- Position Rank: QB17
Over the last few seasons, Prescott has finished as QB6 (2016), QB10 (2017), and QB10 (2018), making his current position of QB17 in most drafts a major bargain. Now consider the fact that these finishes are with what was a lackluster group of receivers.
How much better could Dak be with better pass catchers around him? Well from week 10 last season on (post-Amari Cooper), Prescott was the QB5 in points per game and QB3 in total points. This season Dak will have Cooper, an improved Michael Gallup, Randal Cobb, and Jason Witten. With these additions plus an extremely high floor due to his rushing total (18 Rushing TDs in 3 years) Dak could be a league winner at his current ADP.
2) Cam Newton
- ADP: 93
- Position Rank: QB10
Historically Cam has been a top 10 QB every year of his career except one, and most seasons is at or near top 5. There are some injury concerns here, but reports out of camp seem to believe that he will be ready week 1. Getting a proven top 5 fantasy QB at pick 90 is a steal. I would recommend handcuffing Cam with a safe player like Prescott or Phillip Rivers.
1) Carson Wentz
- ADP: 92
- Position Rank: QB9
Wentz isn’t as undervalued as some on this list, so why is he number 1? Because he is now a year removed from ACL surgery, and the Eagles added several quality targets for the upcoming season. Also Wentz was QB2 during his last healthy stretch (2017, Weeks 1-13). Add in those new pass catchers (Desean Jackson, Miles Sanders, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Jordan Howard) and an improved Dallas Goedert and you have player capable of 40+ passing touchdowns and a potential MVP.